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Arbitrage Finder: Sure Bets and Back & Lay Arbs

The TBBO arbitrage finder scans every upcoming match in the selected sport in two ways. Sure bets back every outcome of a match at the bookmaker with the best price, usually two or three different bookmakers, with stakes sized so the return is the same whatever the result. Back & lay pairs the best bookmaker back price for each selection with the lay price for the same selection on a betting exchange, such as Betfair Exchange, Smarkets and Matchbook in the UK or Betfair Exchange in the EU and Australia. When either locks in a profit whatever the result, the match is listed as an arbitrage opportunity. When there are none, the 20 matches that come closest are shown instead. In the back & lay view, those are also the cheapest qualifying bets for matched betting offers.

How the numbers work: for a sure bet, each stake is the return ÷ that outcome's odds, so every outcome pays the same. Change the total or any one stake and the others rebalance, and the return is the profit, or loss, as a percentage of the total stake. For back & lay, the lay stake is the back stake × back odds ÷ (lay odds − commission), which makes the result the same whichever side wins, and the return is a percentage of the back stake. Back & lay returns use standard exchange commission (Betfair 5%, or 6% on Betfair Australia sports; Smarkets and Matchbook 2%), and you can enter your own rate in any row's calculator. Your liability is the amount the exchange holds to cover the lay bet: lay stake × (lay odds − 1).

Before you bet: odds here come from the free feed with a 15-minute delay, so confirm every price before placing any bet, place the bookmaker bets first, and for back & lay check the exchange has enough money available at your lay price. Bookmakers can void bets struck at obvious price errors and may limit accounts that arb regularly. Arb data is for informational purposes only — see Terms §13. New to laying? Read back and lay betting explained and the arbitrage betting guide, or use the full lay bet calculator.

Arbitrage FAQ

What is back and lay arbitrage? ▾

Back/lay arbitrage means backing a selection at a bookmaker and laying the same selection on a betting exchange such as Betfair Exchange, Smarkets or Matchbook. When the bookmaker's back odds are high enough compared with the exchange's lay odds after commission, the two bets together lock in a profit whatever the result.

How are the lay stake and return calculated? ▾

Lay stake = back stake × back odds ÷ (lay odds − commission), which makes the result the same whichever side wins. The return is that profit or loss as a percentage of the back stake. For example, a £10 back bet at 3.00 laid at 2.90 with 2% commission needs a £10.42 lay stake with £19.79 liability, and returns £0.21 (2.08%) whatever happens.

What is a sure bet? ▾

A sure bet backs every outcome of a match at different bookmakers, usually two or three, with stakes sized so the return is the same whichever outcome wins. It is only possible when 1 ÷ odds, added up across the outcomes, comes to less than 1, which happens when bookmakers disagree about a match. Sure bets use bookmakers only, so there is no exchange commission, and they work in every region, including the US.

How does the sure bet stake calculator work? ▾

Each stake is the return ÷ that outcome's odds, so every outcome pays the same. Change the total stake or any single stake and the others update to keep the returns equal. For example, odds of 2.10, 3.75 and 4.10 split a £100 total into stakes of £48.26, £27.02 and £24.72, which return about £101.34 (+1.34%) whatever the result.

Which exchanges and commission rates are used? ▾

UK matches use Betfair Exchange (5% commission), Smarkets (2%) and Matchbook (2%). EU matches use Betfair Exchange at 5% and Australian matches Betfair Exchange at 6%. The US odds feed has no betting exchanges, so there are no back/lay arbs for US bookmakers. You can enter your own commission rate in any row's calculator.

Why are there no arbitrage opportunities right now? ▾

Arbs are rare and usually disappear within minutes as bookmakers and exchanges adjust their prices. When there are none, the finder shows the 20 matches that come closest to breaking even. In the back and lay view, those are also the cheapest qualifying bets for matched betting offers.

How often are the odds updated? ▾

The free Arbitrage page uses odds refreshed every 15 minutes. VIP Arbitrage refreshes every 3 minutes, so you see new arbs sooner, and is included in TBBO VIP at $12/month with a 7-day free trial.

Is arbitrage betting risk-free? ▾

An arb only locks in a result if every bet is placed at the prices shown. Prices can move, an exchange may not have enough money available at your lay price, and bookmakers can void bets struck at obvious price errors or limit accounts that arb regularly. Always confirm every price before placing any bet.